鋼廠減產意愿增強,市場去庫速度仍緩,鋼價下跌結束了?
發(fā)布時間:2024-07-26 22:53
編輯:達物
來源:互聯網
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v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}1v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊7月26日消息:【原料信息】1.焦炭:受終端鋼價影響,市場悲觀情緒蔓延,原料端焦煤競拍價格回落,焦企即期利潤有所修復,開工情況較好,廠內庫存低位。然鋼廠利潤不佳,部分鋼廠高爐檢修計劃陸續(xù)實施,焦炭剛需回落,鋼廠采購節(jié)奏有所放緩。唐山地區(qū)部分鋼廠計劃對濕熄焦炭價格下調50元/噸、干熄焦下調55元/噸,2024年7月29日0時起執(zhí)行,預計短期焦炭市場偏弱運行。2.鐵礦石:鐵水產量維持階段性高位運行,對原料市場價格起到了助推效果。與此同時在經歷了本周前幾日悲觀情緒的發(fā)酵后,部分空頭減倉止盈,盤面價格迎來了階段性的反彈。但是此次反彈的持續(xù)性預計并不會長久,市場交易端的主要邏輯仍舊在弱現實端,成材需求沒有出現明顯轉機前,鋼價支撐性相對脆弱,按鋼廠減產計劃推測未來鐵水進入下行通道,黑色系負反饋或將持續(xù)進行。短期內期貨主力參考760-770附近的支持,普氏參考100-101美元附近?!臼袌鰞r格變化】: 表1 湖南市場建材的價格 單位(元/噸)本周盤面震蕩偏弱,跌幅100-120,受今盤面震蕩上行影響,市價有小幅上漲10-20,今長沙萍鋼螺紋基價3220元/噸較周一跌120,螺紋各個規(guī)格仍需加價。成交方面,本周國內有主流鋼廠開始轉產新國標,舊鋼筋去庫困難,成交慘淡,今受盤中期螺持紅影響,成交整體尚可,據統(tǒng)計今長沙十家大戶出貨6780噸,個別大戶成交超2千噸,目前為新老國標交替階段市場平穩(wěn)過度,萍鋼等部分鋼廠產量有所下降,省內鋼廠產量持續(xù)低位。預計短期湖南建材市價下跌空間有限?!臼袌鰩齑孀兓浚罕? 長沙建材市場庫存變化匯總(單位:萬噸)目前湖南市價震蕩下調,本周現貨報價混亂,商家出貨受阻,市場去庫較緩,資源方面,本周長沙建材社會庫存33.48萬噸,較上周減少2.36萬噸,其中螺紋鋼庫存26.14萬噸,盤線7.34萬噸;懷化1.4萬噸,衡陽4.8萬噸,湘潭0.7萬噸,婁底3萬噸。淡季效應下供需雙弱格局持續(xù),市場悲觀心態(tài)難改,預計短期庫存壓力仍在?!竞?a target="_blank">廢鋼】昨日至今,本地鋼廠偏弱運行,漣鋼跌20,衡鋼跌20,冷鋼跌50?,F湖南市場主流成交價:重廢6厚2280-2330,鋼筋頭2400-2450,機生鐵2220-2270。湖南省共4家樣本鋼廠廢鋼到貨量為1.37萬噸/天,較前一工作日減少0.04萬噸。昨日夜盤有所轉好,加之今鋼坯漲30,鋼廠跌幅減小,商戶的出貨速度亦有所放緩。但考慮近期成品跌價幅度大,鋼廠虧損較多,因此,本地鋼企多觀望盤面情況,預計短期本地廢鋼仍持弱穩(wěn)運行?!竞系貐^(qū)短期預測】:本周市價偏弱運行,現貨跌幅較大,今早盤期螺上行提振市場,貿易商為彌補前期虧損,挺漲積極性較強?,F貨成交也隨著價格小幅反彈,前期滯后需求得到一定釋放,市場出貨略有好轉,商家目前降庫為主,鋼廠生產意愿不強,供需矛盾或會逐漸緩解,政策利好消息持續(xù)傳出,然落實尚需時間,原料端支撐有限,綜合考慮,預計下周鋼價震蕩偏強,幅度20-50。
1備注:數據僅供參考,不作為投資依據。
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